Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023 (14%/8%)? I bought M500 of YES shares, which moved this to 86%.
Things seem to be stabilizing, and every day without big bad news is good news for Putin here on multiple levels. Metaculus is also doing a better job adjusting as time passes. This year I think this is not confident enough and Metaculus is more accurate at 90%. Last year I thought markets were too confident Putin would keep power. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023 (85%/90%)? It is worth noting that these markets are all highly correlated, so this is not remotely a set of distinct data points when measuring results. Section 1: World Geopolitics, Including Ukraine and Russia Again, I could be persuaded to do more prediction-style stuff if demand proves high in various ways. I am choosing not to include any of my own or any additional markets here, for brevity and speed and with so much else going on right now.
#Dogecoin core virus free#
Polymarket also came out with a few new markets in the last few days, including whether ChatGPT will stay free for three months (84%), whether GPT-4 will have 500 billion parameters (50%), whether GPT-4 will release by May 31 (56%) and whether Bing will have more than 4% market share in February (7%, would have been more interesting with a longer-term target). I don’t see the list here as being additionally interesting and overlapping with my interests enough to justify going over them, although I could be persuaded that I am wrong about that. Matt Yglesias predictions are also on Manifold. The probability on each question is displayed as (Manifold%/Metaculus%). I am not going to make predictions on Metaculus because I tried that in 2022 and found it frustrating and unrewarding.
I made it a point to form an intention to trade and opinion on fair before looking at Metaculus - I can adjust for it if the result there was surprising, but I am not going to trade a non-trivial amount unless I wanted to do so before looking at the second source. My bankroll at Manifold right now is a little over M30k, and year-long commitments are not so great, so I don’t want to go too big without a reason. Since these are market prices with a decent number of eyes, the barrier for making a trade of size is much higher, but part of this will be to make at least a nominal trade in every market I would want to be updated on, even if I largely agree with the market. The markets are in moderately fake money, but Manifold dollars do represent charitable contributions, and markets seem to have been trading in highly reasonable fashion and in line with real-money markets elsewhere. This year, thanks to Manifold Markets and Scott structuring his predictions and contest differently, I’ll be looking at market prices. In past years, I looked at Scott Alexander’s prediction as a baseline.
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